Should You Take a Chance With Comcast?

With shares of Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA) trading around $52, is CMCSA an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE, or STAY AWAY? Let’s analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

Comcast is a provider of entertainment, information, and communications products and services. The company operates in five segments: cable communications, cable networks, broadcast television, filmed entertainment, and theme parks. Comcast offers television, video, high-speed Internet, and voice services to residential and business customers. It also operates NBC and Telemundo broadcast networks; provides filmed entertainment under the Universal Pictures, Focus Features, and Illumination names; and operates theme parks, studios, and a dining, retail, and entertainment complex.

Comcast customers looking for a Wi-Fi hot spot might want to try their neighbor’s yard. The cable and Internet provider has begun to turn hundreds of thousands of Chicago-area homes into virtual coffee shops, using existing Comcast equipment to build out its publicly accessible wireless network. The neighborhood hot spots initiative, rolling out during the next several months, will send a separate Wi-Fi signal from Comcast-issued home equipment, enabling anyone within range to get online. Soon, entire residential blocks will begin to show as hot spots on Xfinity’s Wi-Fi mobile app, the company said Tuesday. Since the Comcast subscriber’s signal will be kept separate from the second, publicly available signal, the subscriber’s speed and privacy shouldn’t be affected, Comcast officials said, acknowledging that such concerns have been raised in test markets. ”They’ll look like two separate networks and they’ll act like two separate networks,” said Tom Nagel, who heads the Xfinity Wi-Fi initiative for Comcast. “Any use on the public side doesn’t impact the private side.”

T = Technicals on the Stock Chart Are Strong

Comcast stock has been trending higher over the past few quarters. The stock is currently surging higher and looks set to continue. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages. What are the key moving averages? The 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, Comcast is trading between its rising key averages which signal neutral price action in the near-term.

(Source: Thinkorswim)

Taking a look at the implied volatility (red) and implied volatility skew levels of Comcast options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a minimal amount of call and put options contracts, as compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

As of today, there is an average demand from call and put buyers or sellers, all neutral over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a minimal amount of call and put option contracts and are leaning neutral over the next two months.

On the next page, let’s take a look at the earnings and revenue growth rates and the conclusion.

E = Earnings Are Increasing Quarter-Over-Quarter

Rising stock prices are often strongly correlated with rising earnings and revenue growth rates. Also, the last four quarterly earnings announcement reactions help gauge investor sentiment on Comcast’s stock. What do the last four quarterly earnings and revenue growth (Y-O-Y) figures for Comcast look like and more importantly, how did the markets like these numbers?

Comcast has seen rising earnings and revenue figures over the last four quarters. From these numbers, the markets have been pleased with Comcast’s recent earnings announcements.

P = Weak Relative Performance Versus Peers and Sector

How has Comcast stock done relative to its peers, Time Warner Cable (NYSE:TWC), DirecTV (NASDAQ:DTV), Dish Network (NASDAQ:DISH), and sector?

Comcast has been a poor relative performer, year-to-date.

Conclusion

Comcast provides communications and entertainment products and services to consumers and companies. The company has begun to turn hundreds of thousands of Chicago-area homes into virtual coffee shops, using existing Comcast equipment to build out its publicly accessible wireless network. The stock has been trending higher over the past few quarters and looks set to continue. Over the last four quarters, earnings and revenues have been increasing, which has left investors pleased about recent earnings announcements. Relative to its peers and sector, Comcast has been a weak year-to-date performer. Look for Comcast to OUTPERFORM.

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